Colorado’s political landscape shifted dramatically in the 2018 midterm elections, primarily in response to President Donald Trump’s election and first two years in office. Previously, the state had operated under a divided government with Democrats holding a majority in the House and Republicans holding a majority in the Senate.
As a result of the 2018 election, Democrats won the governor’s race and extended their majority in the House (41 Democrats; 24 Republicans) and captured the Senate majority. The current Senate makeup is 19 Democrats and 16 Republicans.
Democrats also unexpectedly won the attorney general, treasurer and secretary of state races.
In their first legislative session with full-power, Democrats pushed through an ambitious, progressive agenda that covered seemingly everything: full-day kindergarten, red-flag laws, a ban on conversion therapy and sweeping energy-extraction and production regulation. By all accounts, the Democrats accomplished much of their political agenda.
So as the legislature reconvened in 2020, two questions arose. Did the Democrats overreach? And, what can we expect this session?
Four times in the past 20 years one party has had a trifecta in Colorado with a governor and majority in the House and Senate. In each instance, the trifecta was short-lived, because the party overreached. In 2013, Democrats used a trifecta to push through a controversial political agenda. The following year, Democrats lost the Senate. Republicans are hoping for a repeat and appear to be messaging along the lines that the Democrats are out of step with mainstream Colorado values.
However, there are strong signs that Coloradans don’t buy that argument. Perhaps the most significant sign is the fact that the Republicans favorite play call, the recall, failed miserably. All five recall campaigns fell flat. If the Democrats had overreached, would all of these efforts come up short? More importantly, if Colorado’s strong economy stays on track, voters will have little incentive to want wholesale political change in 2020.
So how should Democrats lead in an election year?
No matter which party is in control, they need to choose their agenda carefully and moderate the most extreme side of their political base. Yes, this will surely make the far left wing of the constituency angry, but just because they can pass any legislation they choose, does not mean that they should. Especially, if they want to wield power beyond a term or two.
To date, the three most important people in the capitol have done an effective job of not letting the sideshow take over the circus.
Gov. Jared Polis has exhibited a strong, independent streak while collaborating in a meaningful way on progressive issues with House Speaker KC Becker and Senate President Leroy Garcia, who have both done a good job of managing their respective caucuses and agenda. There can be no doubt that in choosing Becker and Garcia, their Democratic caucus members understood that this is what they needed to do.
But 2020 won’t be easy.
Democrats will have to navigate and temper their core constituencies’ growing influence at the Capitol. Environmental groups achieved dramatic success during last year’s legislative session, but it doesn’t appear to have done enough to satisfy the far left. Look no further than the governor’s State of the State speech, when as Polis began speaking, a man started yelling, “Ban fracking now!” Before Polis even entered the House, anti-oil and gas demonstrators began shouting and waving a banner in the House chambers.
Colorado Rising, an anti-fracking group, has submitted several proposed ballot initiatives, including different measures that would increase statewide setback distances for oil and gas extraction operations from occupied structures. Prior election results show that this is a step too far for Colorado.
Meanwhile, labor organizations are attempting to make it easier to unionize in Colorado in what is guaranteed to have a serious ripple effect. One proposed bill would allow state employee unions to collectively bargain with state government.
The state could go too far. There is talk about changing Colorado’s Labor Peace Act, which, in a 76-year-old compromise between labor organizations and business, requires two rounds of voting before workers can unionize. In the first vote, 50%, plus one employee must agree to proceed. If successful, a second vote takes place, and if 75% of the employees approve, all employees must pay dues and belong to the union. Colorado’s moderate approach has worked and we have also long avoided being a right to work state. Representatives from 15 business groups have already sent a letter to Polis asking for his help in maintaining this process.
The most important issue of the session will be the paid family leave bill for Colorado workers. This is the one major cornerstone Democratic progressive issue that the Democrats haven’t delivered on yet. A bill last year called for a state-mandated paid leave program that would have given 12 weeks of paid time off for all workers to care for new children or for loved ones with illnesses.
The issue was one of only a few times in the 2019 session where the business community successfully defeated a major Democratic issue. Business groups were rightfully skeptical about its implementation, scope, impact on Colorado businesses, and whether it would be financially viable.
Democrats risk a lot and will fail again if they ignore last year’s lesson and push the same progressive family leave bill. But if they offer a more moderate Colorado solution that provides paid time off to more Coloradans without straining state resources or forcing taxpayers to bear the financial risk, they might find support in the business community and a few votes from across the aisle.
Meanwhile, there are good progressive and moderate ideas that the Democrats should push through this session. Polis was right to raise the issue of tax reform in his state of the state speech and the creation of a bipartisan coalition to study this issue is a good one. The state should also finally abolish the archaic and unworkable death penalty statute. Other criminal justice reform issues like expungement of minor marijuana convictions is also long overdue.
It will be incumbent upon Polis, Becker and Garcia to continue to work together and carefully navigate these issues and challenges to achieve continued success and maintain their trifecta in a highly charged election year.
Pushing too hard or too far could fire up the Republican base and unaffiliated-leaning Republicans in the same way Trump’s antics propelled Colorado Democrats into control.
Doug Friednash is a Denver native, a partner with the law firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber and Schreck and the former chief of staff for Gov. John Hickenlooper.
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